BERLIN: The Alternative for Germany (AfD) was on track on Sunday to become the first far-right party to win a regional election in Germany since World War Two, exit polls showed, but was almost certain to be excluded from power by rival parties. The AfD was projected to win 33.5 percent of the vote in the state of Thuringia, comfortably ahead of the conservatives’ 24.5 percent, broadcaster ZDF’s exit poll showed. In the neighboring state of Saxony, the conservatives led on 32 percent, just half a percentage point ahead of the AfD.

The left populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which like the AfD demands sharper controls on immigration and wants to stop arming Ukraine, came third in both states, though significantly underperformed earlier polls.

Casting her vote early in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, Sandra Pagel said she was “really afraid” of a victory of the AfD. “I’m very nervous to see what happens today ... because I think there’s a very high risk that the AfD will win and that scares me. For my grandchildren and also for me,” the 46-year-old sterilization processing facility manager told AFP.

Created in 2013 as an anti-euro group before morphing into an anti-immigration party, the AfD has capitalized on the fractious three-way coalition in Berlin to rise in opinion polls. In June’s EU Parliament elections, the party scored a record 15.9 percent overall and did especially well in eastern Germany, where it emerged as the biggest force.

In a post on social media platform X on Sunday, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel urged voters to choose the AfD to “not only change the future in Saxony and Thuringia, but also bring about a political turnaround throughout Germany”.

Saxony is the most populous of the former East German states and has been a conservative stronghold since reunification. Thuringia meanwhile is more rural and the only state currently led by the far-left Die Linke, a successor of East Germany’s ruling communist party. A third former East German state, Brandenburg, is also due to hold an election later in September, where polls have the AfD ahead on around 24 percent.

With a year to go until Germany’s national election, the results look punishing for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, though his Social Democrats looked to have cleared the 5 percent threshold for staying in the parliaments of both states. However, his coalition partners, the Greens and the business-friendly Free Democrats looked less secure in both parliaments, in a development that could herald yet more conflict in Scholz’s already fractious coalition government. All parties including the BSW have pledged not to allow into coalition an AfD they regard as anti-democratic and extremist. — Agencies